Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Agriculture the way to go?

Since the early 2000's, there have been large increases in the commodity prices of many agriculture products, such as corn, wheat, barley, soy beans, sugar, and coffee. Many countries in the world are well along the development path, and their populations are now better able to afford different foods. This is creating increased demand from the rapidly growing countries such as China, India and Brazil. The world is now in a position of greater demand for food and not enough supply and because it takes years to prepare fields and get more production into the pipeline for some crops, there is no quick fix to meet the increased demand.

We are also losing top quality soil faster than replacing it. On average, the planet has little more than 3 feet of topsoil spread across its surface. Replacing it is not easy as it grows back an inch or 2 over hundred of years. We are not losing it to agriculture alone. There is also development, construction and erosion. On a global basis, the U.N. says that the rate of loss is 10 - 100 times the rate of replacement. And since top quality soil are getting lesser everyday, plenty of countries (eg. China, India) will pay for it at any price.

The advancement in agriculture will be crucial to increase crop yields per acre. Over the last 40 years, we've increased the yield per acre by 2.1% per year. But the pace of those gains is slowing. Since 2000, the increase in yields per acre has averaged less than 1% per year. A U.N. report stated that the population of China, India, Pakistan and other big Asian countries will grow 1.5 billion by 2050, doubling the continent's food demand, driving up prices. Some of the best returns this decade will come from agriculture investing, and the kinds of companies that keep us supplied with water, food and energy.


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